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Upward advection or mixing of iron‐rich deep waters due to circulation changes driven by the rate of basal ice shelf melt was shown to be a primary control on chlorophyllaproduction in coastal polynyas over the Antarctic continental shelf. Here, the effects of atmospheric changes projected in 2100 on this relationship were examined with a 5‐km resolution ocean/sea ice/ice shelf model of the Southern Ocean with different simulated dissolved iron sources and idealized biological uptake. The atmospheric changes are added as idealized increments to the forcing. Inclusion of a poleward shift and strengthening of the winds, increased precipitation, and warmer atmospheric temperatures resulted in doubling of the heat advected onto the continental shelf and an 83% increase in the total Antarctic ice shelf basal melt. The total dissolved iron supply to the surface waters over the continental shelf increased by 62%, while the surface iron supply due just to basal melt driven overturning increased by 48%. However, even though the ice shelf driven contribution becomes less important to the total iron supply on average (29% of total), the ice shelf involvement becomes relatively even more important in some locations, such as the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. The modified atmospheric conditions also produced a reduction in summer sea ice extent and a shoaling of the summer mixed layers. These simulated responses to projected changes suggest relief of light and nutrient limitation for phytoplankton blooms over the Antarctic continental shelf and perhaps an increase in annual production in years to come.

Understanding decadal changes in the coastal carbonate system is essential for predicting how the health of these waters responds to anthropogenic drivers, such as changing atmospheric conditions and riverine inputs. However, studies that quantify the relative impacts of these drivers are lacking. In this study, the primary drivers of decadal trends in the surface carbonate system, and the spatiotemporal variability in these trends, are identified for a large coastal plain estuary: the Chesapeake Bay. Experiments using a coupled three‐dimensional hydrodynamic‐biogeochemical model highlight that, over the past three decades, the changes in the surface carbonate system of Chesapeake Bay have strong seasonal and spatial variability. The greatest surface pH and aragonite saturation state (Ω_AR) reductions have occurred in the summer in the middle (mesohaline) Bay: −0.24 and −0.9 per 30 years, respectively, with increases in atmospheric CO₂and reductions in nitrate loading both being primary drivers. Reductions in nitrate loading have a strong seasonal influence on the carbonate system, with the most pronounced decadal decreases in pH and Ω_ARoccurring during the summer when primary production is strongly dependent on nutrient availability. Increases in riverine total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon have raised surface pH in the upper oligohaline Bay, while other drivers such as atmospheric warming and input of acidified ocean water through the Bay mouth have had comparatively minor impacts on the estuarine carbonate system. This work has significant implications for estuarine ecosystem services, which are typically most sensitive to surface acidification in the spring and summer seasons.

Previous studies showed that satellite‐derived estimates of chlorophyllain coastal polynyas over the Antarctic continental shelf are correlated with the basal melt rate of adjacent ice shelves. A 5‐km resolution ocean/sea ice/ice shelf model of the Southern Ocean is used to examine mechanisms that supply the limiting micronutrient iron to Antarctic continental shelf surface waters. Four sources of dissolved iron are simulated with independent tracers, assumptions about the source iron concentration for each tracer, and an idealized summer biological uptake. Iron from ice shelf melt provides about 6% of the total dissolved iron in surface waters. The contribution from deep sources of iron on the shelf (sediments and Circumpolar Deep Water) is much larger at 71%. The relative contribution of dissolved iron supply from basal melt driven overturning circulation within ice shelf cavities is heterogeneous around Antarctica, but at some locations, such as the Amundsen Sea, it is the primary mechanism for transporting deep dissolved iron to the surface. Correlations between satellite chlorophyllain coastal polynyas around Antarctica and simulated dissolved iron confirm the previous suggestion that productivity of the polynyas is linked to the basal melt of adjacent ice shelves. This correlation is the result of upward advection or mixing of iron‐rich deep waters due to circulation changes driven by ice shelf melt, rather than a direct influence of iron released from melting ice shelves. This dependence highlights the potential vulnerability of coastal Antarctic ecosystems to changes in ice shelf basal melt rates.

Getz Ice Shelf, the largest producer of ice shelf meltwater in Antarctica, buttresses glaciers that hold enough ice to raise sea level by 22 cm. We present a new bathymetry of its sub‐ice shelf cavity using a three‐dimensional inversion of airborne gravity data constrained by multibeam bathymetry at sea and a reconstruction of the bedrock from mass conservation on land. The new bathymetry is deeper than previously estimated with differences exceeding 500 m in a number of regions. When incorporated into an ocean model, it yields a better description of the spatial distribution of ice shelf melt, specifically along glacier grounding lines. While the melt intensity is overestimated because of a positive bias in ocean thermal forcing, the study reveals the main pathways along which warm oceanic water enters the cavity and corroborates the observed rapid retreat of Berry Glacier along a deep channel with a retrograde bed slope.

Estuaries play an uncertain but potentially important role in the global carbon cycle via CO₂outgassing. The uncertainty mainly stems from the paucity of studies that document the full spatial and temporal variability of estuarine surface water partial pressure of carbon dioxide ( pCO₂). Here, we explore the potential of utilizing the abundance of pH data from historical water quality monitoring programs to fill the data void via a case study of the mainstem Chesapeake Bay (eastern United States). We calculatepCO₂and the air‐water CO₂flux at monthly resolution from 1998 to 2018 from tidal fresh to polyhaline waters, paying special attention to the error estimation. The biggest error is due to the pH measurement error, and errors due to the gas transfer velocity, temporal sampling, the alkalinity mixing model, and the organic alkalinity estimation are 72%, 27%, 15%, and 5%, respectively, of the error due to pH. Seasonal, interannual, and spatial variability in the air‐water flux and surfacepCO₂is high, and a correlation analysis with oxygen reveals that this variability is driven largely by biological processes. Averaged over 1998–2018, the mainstem bay is a weak net source of CO₂to the atmosphere of 1.2 (1.1, 1.4) mol m⁻² yr⁻¹(best estimate and 95% confidence interval). Our findings suggest that the abundance of historical pH measurements in estuaries around the globe should be mined in order to constrain the large spatial and temporal variability of the CO₂exchange between estuaries and the atmosphere.

Insect larvae are reported to be a major component of the simple but highly productive trophic web found in Lake Magadi (Kenya, Africa), which is considered to be one of the most extreme aquatic environments on Earth. Previous studies show that fish must display biochemical and physiological adjustments to thrive under the extreme conditions of the lake. However, information for invertebrates is lacking. In the present study, the occurrence of the larval chironomid Tanytarsus minutipalpus is reported in Lake Magadi for the first time. Additionally, changes in larval metabolism and antioxidant defense correlated with diel variations in the extremely hostile environmental conditions of the lake are described. Wide variations in water temperature (20.2-29.3oC) and dissolved oxygen content (3.2-18.6 mg O2 L−1) were observed at different times of day, without significant change in water pH (10.0±0.03). Temperature and dissolved oxygen were higher at 1:00 pm (29.3±0.4oC and 18.6±1.0 mg O2 L−1) and 7:00 pm (29.3±0.8oC and 16.2±1.6 mg O2 L−1) and lower at 1:00 am (21.1±0.1oC and 10.7±0.03 mg O2 L−1) and 7:00 am (20.2±0.4oC and 3.2±0.7 mg O2 L−1). Significant and parallel increases in parameters related to metabolism (cholinesterase, glucose, cholesterol, urea, creatinine and hemoglobin) and the antioxidant system (SOD, GPx, GR, GSH and GSSG) were observed in larvae collected at 1:00 pm. In contrast, no significant changes were observed in pro-oxidants (ROS and NO), TOSC and oxidative damage parameters (LPO and DNA damage). Therefore, the observed increases in temperature and dissolved O2 content in Lake Magadi were associated with changes in the antioxidant system of T. minutipalpus larvae. Adjustments performed by the chironomid larvae were efficient in maintaining body homeostasis, as well as protecting biomolecules against oxidative damage, so that oxidative stress did not occur. GSH-GSSG and GPx-GR systems appeared to play an essential role in the adjustments displayed by the chironomid larvae during the diel changes in the extreme conditions of Lake Magadi.